Stock Projection

Anticipate shortages before they stop your production.

Pelico's Stock Projection replays all your planned supply and demand events on top of your current inventory. Day by day, you see how the stock of every part will evolve, when it will run short, and which orders will be blocked as a result.

⚠️ Stock Projection is not agnostic. It is a simulation, not a measurement. It relies on assumptions about future events (planned dates, planned quantities, BoM accuracy). Its quality is directly tied to the quality of the planning data it receives. See Assumptions & limitations below.

The projection is built in three steps.

The same logic is applied at every level of the Bill of Materials (BoM). A shortage on a component propagates upward and blocks the sub-assemblies and equipment that depend on it.

Three types of parts are included in the projection, depending on where they sit in your BoM.

Each event type moves the projected stock up or down. Incoming supply is counted at its Availability Date, the moment the part is genuinely usable rather than the moment it arrives at the gate.

💡Availability Date, and why it can be later than delivery. Between a delivery and the moment a part can actually be consumed, there can be internal transport, inspection or admin work. Pelico calls that gap the Processing Delay, and adds it to the delivery or end date to get the Availability Date.

The Processing Delay defaults to zero, so in most cases the Availability Date and the Delivery Date are the same day. When they differ, this is why.

💡Confirmed vs anticipated. PR and SF are unconfirmed events, but they are treated exactly like their confirmed counterparts (PO and CO). This gives you the most complete forward-looking picture, at the cost of relying on demand and supply that may still change.

BoM of MODEL1: 1 equipment of MODEL1 requires 4 × Component_1 and 2 × Component_2.

A WO producing 5 pieces of MODEL1 will therefore:

When several events fall on the same date, they are not applied at random. Pelico processes them in a fixed sequence.

💡Why it matters. Placing customer demand last means that any shortage surfaces on the customer-facing orders first, which is exactly where you want to see it.

Every order that consumes a part (WO, SO, STO, CO, SF) receives a coverage status. It answers one question : will the required stock be there on the day this order needs it ?

Pelico computes three forward-looking dates to help you prioritise.

The nearest upcoming date at which the production of an equipment becomes blocked.

Use it to answer : when does this line actually stop ? It is the deadline you are working against.

The nearest upcoming date to which a blocked order (WO, SO and others) could be pushed so that the required stock becomes sufficient.

Use it to answer : if I cannot unblock this order, how far do I have to move it ?

⚠️ Important. Rescheduling a WO to its next enablement date does not guarantee that it becomes Covered. The algorithm that computes this date assumes an optimised production of all its sub-equipments, an assumption your actual plan may not meet.

If it exists, the nearest upcoming date at which a part will block the production of any equipment.

Use it to answer : which part should I chase first, and by when ? This is the shortage-driven view, as opposed to the equipment-driven view of the production stop date.

In some production modes, specific physical parts are reserved to produce one specific equipment. This is called Make-to-Order (MTO).

In MTO, the Serial Number (SN) is the link between an equipment and every part assembled into it. Stock is no longer interchangeable: 100 components in stock are useless to a WO if none of them carry the right SN.

❗Coverage rule for MTO. A Work Order is Covered only if all parts carrying the same serial number as the equipment are available. Generic stock of the same part reference does not count.

Events whose planned date is already in the past are still part of the projection, but they follow specific rules.

💡Past-due supply is cleaned up before the projection runs. Rather than replaying overdue events where they sit, Pelico preprocesses them first: events too far past are excluded, and the rest are pulled to today. The projection then runs on that tidied baseline. This is why you may see three date layers on the same event: Planned (the raw date from your ERP, never altered), Adjusted (the cleaned-up starting point), and Projected (the forward-looking result).

💡Why blocked orders do not produce here. Not counting the output of a blocked order is a deliberate algorithm choice, not a gap. It answers a specific question : what happens if nothing gets fixed ? Production Control's Conditional projection (realistic) row follows the same rule. Its Stock level (optimistic) row counts this output anyway, as a best case. See Pelico's Algorithms.

One consequence follows directly: current stock is not today's physical stock. The projection replays every event in its originally planned order, including orders that were planned in the past and never rescheduled. The value shown for today can differ from what is physically on your shelves. Overdue, un-rescheduled orders are the usual explanation.

Keep these in mind when reading a projection.